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Actual outcome 100%; 70% probability Trump is again being conned by Putin in regards to Russian peace with Ukraine

Probability Trump is again being conned by Putin in regards to Russian peace with Ukraine. Based on current developments as of August 13, 2025, assessing the probability that U.S. President Donald Trump is being manipulated or deceived (“conned”) by Russian President Vladimir Putin in the context of Ukraine peace talks requires examining recent events, historical patterns, and expert analyses. This is inherently subjective, as it involves interpreting intentions in geopolitics, but I’ll break it down step by step with transparent reasoning grounded in available evidence. I’ll aim for a non-partisan, truth-seeking perspective, focusing on verifiable facts rather than speculation or bias. ### Step 1: Establishing the Current Context - **Trump’s Position and the Upcoming Summit**: Trump, who assumed office as the 47th president on January 20, 2025, has prioritized ending the Russia-Ukraine war quickly. He is scheduled to meet Putin in Alaska on August 15, 2025 (two days from now), for wha...

Trump alas is treating geopolitics as if it is a simple business deal. It is no such thing.

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Abstract: The document critiques Trump's approach to geopolitics, comparing it to historical events and emphasizing the complexity of international relations and the ongoing nature of colonization and power struggles. Trump's Simplistic View : Trump is criticized for treating geopolitics as a simple business deal, which oversimplifies complex international conflicts. Historical Comparison : The document references Chamberlain's 1938 nonaggression pact with Hitler to illustrate the dangers of oversimplified diplomatic agreements. Geopolitical Power Struggles : Geopolitics involves continuous power struggles and moral conflicts between opposing ideologies, which cannot be resolved through simple business deals. Ongoing Colonizing Wars : Colonizing wars are ongoing and driven by power, not diplomacy, as groups seek to defend and expand their territories and ideologies. Conflict Resolution Methods : Once colonized, groups are subjected to the colonizers' conflict resolution...

The search for conflict, the search for minutia, the search for inertia, the search for destruction.

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  The search for conflict, the search for minutia, the search for inertia, the search for destruction. “Kant and Hegel both speculate that the goal of history is freedom itself.”  (Daniels 2021) Freedom to do what to whom for whose benefit? I preface my reflections below by stating it is not that I believe ills even evil do not exist but it is the Don Quixote pursuit of both in making an industry of verbosity reframing history in a never ending pursuit of a new oppression predicated on neotruth that given history is not only a particle but a wave the moral constructs of the past are linked inexorably to the present and become the here and now rather than past practice which either no longer exists or is partially ameliorated by the luxury of a resource rich technological Western society enabling the erudite to suffer us with their inventions. A practice which in seeking to find-address the never-ending ills-evil within a scarce power-resource environment in which no individual...

"Mr Frydenberg’s frightening admission" fails to reveal a worse moral failing the West led by the French once again, with Australia being fully cognisant of participating in another Czechoslovakian solution for Europe.

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"Treasurer Josh Frydenberg warns President Vladimir Putin’s military advances have an ‘eery similarity’ to Hitler’s prior to WWII", Jack Mahony, March 18, 2022 - 9:25PM,  www.skynews.com.au "Mr Frydenberg’s frightening admission" fails to reveal a worse moral failing the West led by the French once again, with Australia being fully cognisant of participating in another Czechoslovakian solution for Europe. The bloody sacrifice of a Nation Ukraine as Czechoslovakia was prior to the public declaration of WWII in the hope of satiating the beast so in turn the rest of Europe would not be devoured. And England and Australia in particular passing over Lest we forget with such ease given they were Ukraine a short time ago leaves me shameful and grief stricken that our elite have been blinded so effectively to reality by an ideological lens which has led to a state of Naivety (Germany's own view of its diplomatic approach and military preparedness) and I would add Unprep...

If I am right we are going to be very fortunate to survive this diplomacy. Naïve, Unprepared, Unwilling, cudgelling ourselves with our own sanctions, sanctimonious as we sacrifice human beings on our doorstep to our imbued WOKE Culture Cancel blindness.

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If I am right we are going to be very fortunate to survive this diplomacy. The WOKE Culture Cancel paradigm Diplomacy underwritten by dangerous lies:  We are more alike than different in a holistic sense and those differences make us stronger, that  Individuals must be perceived detached from their Biology/Culture Ideology bonds only if they’re not conservative, white, that  Individual’s behaviour must be disconnected from the group development floors they emerge from, that  Biology of an individual and group cannot be utilised to correlate potential negativity/benefit for the individual and groups themselves nor their impact on Other, that  Perceived extremists from Western perspective, leaders and citizens are determined as being significant minority brainwashed or doing the brainwashing it is seen by the West as a simple case of taking out the network node leader and the 'good' will prevail. An assumption the misinformed when told the Western version of the T...

The German chancellor said German society would cease being Diplomatically naïve. We simply do not arrive at such a dangerous state regards our existence by accident. "I Came to College Eager to Debate. I Found Self-Censorship Instead.", New York Times, By Emma Camp, March 7, 2022

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  The creation of the Great WOKE Cancel Culture moral exemplar Fortress Europe with its NATO army cringing behind its walls, bellows worthless words, worthless sanctions against a Russian Army in the field killing Ukraine citizen soldiers and again at the forefront the French with allies feeding the beast, the Czeclosavakian solution sacrificing once again a whole nations citizens in a blood bath in hope of satiating the hunger of the beast. Sanctions which worked so effectively against Japan in WWII, and the Czechoslovakian solution against German aggression, revealing inherent weakness of courage, moral fortitude, enabling time, supercharging motivation for the enemy to hit back with decisive hard power, the final arbitrator of victory at the accountants shuffling paper, and discarders of nations cowardly politicians and their citizens Naïve, Unprepared, Unwilling -lucky to survive WWII the WOKE Cancel Culture West repeats the recipe for disaster. Throwing a loaded dice agai...