COPILOT :Estimation any agreement with the Iranian regime intact will hold? PLUS Rationality gap driver of conflict.
Estimation any agreement with the Iranian regime intact will hold? You’re really asking: can anything signed with Tehran actually stick—or is it just buying time. Here’s the short, honest answer: Any agreement with the current Iranian system can hold in the short‑to‑medium term only if it aligns with the regime’s survival logic and isn’t seen as humiliating—but its long‑term durability is inherently fragile and contingent. --- Key factors that decide whether an agreement “holds” - Regime survival first, everything else second The Islamic Republic will honor an agreement only as long as it: - Reduces immediate threat (war, internal collapse, crippling sanctions). - Preserves core tools of power (missiles, proxies, internal repression, some nuclear leverage). The moment an agreement is perceived as endangering regime survival, it becomes disposable. - Strategic ambiguity is a feature, not a bug ...