Actual outcome 100%; 70% probability Trump is again being conned by Putin in regards to Russian peace with Ukraine
Probability Trump is again being conned by Putin in regards to Russian peace with Ukraine. Based on current developments as of August 13, 2025, assessing the probability that U.S. President Donald Trump is being manipulated or deceived (“conned”) by Russian President Vladimir Putin in the context of Ukraine peace talks requires examining recent events, historical patterns, and expert analyses. This is inherently subjective, as it involves interpreting intentions in geopolitics, but I’ll break it down step by step with transparent reasoning grounded in available evidence. I’ll aim for a non-partisan, truth-seeking perspective, focusing on verifiable facts rather than speculation or bias. ### Step 1: Establishing the Current Context - **Trump’s Position and the Upcoming Summit**: Trump, who assumed office as the 47th president on January 20, 2025, has prioritized ending the Russia-Ukraine war quickly. He is scheduled to meet Putin in Alaska on August 15, 2025 (two days from now), for wha...