Bernard Gaynor x Army intelligence officer Australian Defence Force letter detailing his views on the security-political-social Diligence and Efficiency & Response

To Whom it May Concern

I (Bernard Gaynor x Army intelligence officer Australian Defence Force) don't normally email out the articles that I write. However, given events in recent days with the arrest of two teenagers in Sydney for planning yet another terrorist attack and revelations that Australia is the third-most targeted nation by the Islamic State, it is clear that we are facing an embryonic but growing Islamic insurgency.

Before I began working in the public sphere, I was an intelligence officer in the Australian Army. I was good at my job and I understand our intelligence community well. It completely fails to understand the threat that we face. 

My article today explains clearly the nature of this insurgency...


The threat we face
There is no doubt that Australia is facing an embryonic insurgency, driven by Islamic beliefs. This unfortunate and disturbing truth was highlighted once again with the recent arrest of two teenagers who police allege were planning an imminent beheading in Sydney.
In addition to this latest incident, we’ve seen in just the last few months:
  • Ihsas Khan attack and almost kill a Minto man in broad daylight in September. Khan was known by police and the attack occurred on the 15th anniversary of September 11.
  • Two backpackers were slain by Smail Ayad in August while he yelled ‘Allahu akbar’ in Home Hill.
  • The US Congress released a report in August showing that Australia was the third-top target for Islamic State terrorist attacks in the world, with eight planned or executed attacks since 2014. However, Australian media report that the number of attacks (planned or carried out) is even higher at fifteen.
  • Again in August, a Lakemba-based childcare network was raided amid concerns that it had siphoned off more than $27 million of taxpayer funds and sent them to the Islamic State.
The Australian government will rely heavily on advice from intelligence analysts as it develops strategies to counter this insurgency. And this advice will be based on an assessment of the threat, looking at its capability and intent.

All the available evidence shows that the Islamic insurgency in Australia has a low capability. The events of the past few days demonstrate this.In regards to the current capability of the threat, Australians can be confident that this advice will be sound. Australia’s intelligence agencies are very good at understanding capability and they have the means to monitor it closely, even if they cannot stop every attack.
The two teenagers were arrested after purchasing bayonets at a gun shop. One of them is the stepson of a convicted terrorist. They were arrested outside a mosque after conducting pre-attack rituals. And both of them were known to police for attempts to join Islamic terrorist groups overseas, refusing to stand during the national anthem at a school assembly and for carrying signs in public calling for beheadings.
In terms of a terrorist attack, the best description that can be given to this one is that it was a complete cluster. In fact, it is difficult to conceive how a planned attack could be any easier to detect and thwart.
There was no attempt at secrecy. There was no attempt to source weapons covertly. And the attack was to be launched from the most obvious place possible: a mosque. If this is the best effort that those involved in this embryonic insurgency can muster, then it will not go far.
However, even with this low level of capability, deadly terrorist attacks have occurred in Australia. Most of them have been conducted by those already on the radar of policing and security agencies. That they slipped through should be of great concern, demonstrating weaknesses on the security side rather than the strength of this insurgency.
However, those involved in this insurgency do not need a great capability to cause a fatal impact: all that is needed is a knife and a mobile phone.
So even with this low level of capability, the safety of Australians is largely dependent on the numbers game. Police and security agencies have already admitted that they do not have the resources to monitor all known threats. Safety cannot be guaranteed and the victims will be those unlucky enough to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.
That is going to be our future, even if threat capability does not increase. Most Australians would agree that this is not good enough, even if they will accept increasingly disruptive controls over ordinary aspects of life to counter a threat that is easily recognisable and allowed to continue operating largely unhindered in our midst. But if the government is not going to address this insurgency by targeting it at its source, then the consequence will be that the rest of us face ever more intrusive and disruptive security measures in an attempt to maintain public safety.
Unfortunately, one thing is almost certain: the capability of the threat will increase. Practice makes perfect and every failed attack will drive a learning cycle within the individuals and networks that form this insurgency. Furthermore, it is well-known that criminal organisations like outlaw motorcycle groups have seen a surge in Islamic membership. These organisations will develop threat capability, as will the return of hardened Islamic State veterans from Iraq and Syria. There is also an increasing risk that our own agencies will ‘grow’ capability through politically-correct recruitment programs.
Both Defence and the Australian Federal Police have made public commitments to recruit from the Islamic community. This is fraught with danger, posing a risk to morale and a reduction in our national capacity to monitor and counter threats, while providing opportunities for those involved in the insurgency to develop capability. And with a politically-driven imperative to increase Islamic recruitment, there can only be a corresponding drop in vetting standards.
Additionally, the capability of those involved in this insurgency in relation to supporting functions like recruitment and funding has already proven sophisticated and effective. One should plan for the ‘sharp end’ of the insurgency to develop in capability to match the skill shown on its logistical side.
As such, it would be entirely complacent for Australians and our government to assume that the botched attack in Sydney this week represents the future. It does not. It represents everything that is likely to change as this insurgency continues: its capability will only increase, supported by a growing network of mosques across Australia that represent ‘bar’ in this deadly but politically-correct game of ‘tiggy’.
A key indicator that capability has increased – especially planning, coordination and strategy – will be when the targeting of attacks changes. At the moment, violence is focused against random individuals and crude attacks on law enforcement officers. Over time, a growing insurgency will look to undertake large scale mass attacks, insider attacks on police and Defence facilities and targeted assassinations of public figures, especially those who are prepared to speak against the growth of Islam in Australia.
Fortunately, our policing, security and intelligence agencies will likely have the means to monitor, understand and assess this capability as it grows and Australians will be informed if it does.
However, this does not mean that all attacks will be stopped.
The second limb of the threat assessment is intent: an understanding of the motivation to carry out attacks and the strategy behind them.
Unfortunately, when it comes to an assessment of intent, Australia is not so well placed. Our policing, security and intelligence agencies are wholly unprepared to assess intent. In fact, there is not one single officer in any Australian agency tasked with the job of understanding why two teenagers were motivated by Islamic teaching to behead an Australian this week.
Not one.
And that is why everyone in senior positions, from the Prime Minister to the head of ASIO, has in recent years rejected the suggestion that there is an inherent problem of violence with Islam and instead asserted that it is a peaceful religion which terrorists fail to understand. Unlike the ‘professionals’ with their heads in the sand, Australians are not so convinced. Half the nation now supports policies to restrict all Islamic immigration.
To demonstrate why blind faith in our security agencies’ assessment of Islam is hopelessly misguided, one only needs to understand the strange situation we find ourselves in.
The assessment we have been given is that violence occurs firstly as a result of a misunderstanding of the peaceful tenets of Islam. A secondary issue inflaming the situation is said to be factors of our own making, such as a national failure to integrate the Islamic community due to our own prejudice against it.
In relation to the second point, we are also supposed to be a nation that has rejected others as well. However, other migrant groups have not resorted to violence and Australia is much more open and ‘multicultural’ now than it ever has been. So, on any objective assessment, it must be acknowledged that the violence we now face is not actually due to any secondary factor of our own making at all. And that leaves only a misunderstanding of Islam as a cause of violence.
However, to believe the claim that Islam has been misunderstood, one must accept two things:
  1. Australia’s security agencies have assessed Islam and concluded on the evidence that it is peaceful. This would require dedication of analytical resources which has simply not been provided.
  2. Australia’s security agencies have then taken the evidence for that assessment and sat on it, failing to produce any coherent information operations plan that would undermine the violent but misguided beliefs of those who are strongly motivated to follow Islamic teachings as perfectly as they can.
In other words, if you truly believe that our government understands Islam and that it is peaceful, then you must also believe that Australia’s policing, security and intelligence agencies are guilty of gross incompetence by failing to outline in any rational way the peaceful tenets of Islam to those motivated to be good Muslims and who believe that to do so involves the occasional beheading of random strangers.
You can say ditto to that in regards to the entire political leadership of this nation, as well as the imams, muftis and sheikhs who have somehow managed to watch on in silence as a violent heresy has taken hold of Australia’s Islamic community.
However, the good news is that our national security agencies have not incompetently failed to use the peaceful teachings of Islam to prevent violence. Instead, they have incompetently assumed that Islam is peaceful. The failure to use peaceful Islamic teachings is a mere side effect of the fact that they don’t exist at all.
So let’s look at this insurgency’s intent and understand it properly.Islamic violence is based on the example of Mohammad himself (who was one of history’s most successful warlords). It is aided and abetted in Australia by politically-correct thinking that results in counter-productive deradicalisation programs and a paralysis of thought, language and action that is rendering it impossible for our government to meet its first duty: safety of Australians.
Firstly, one thing is clear: while capability may be low, it certainly cannot be assessed that intent is. There is a deadly intent to attack. It is so strong that it even seems to hinder capability, supressing any rational thought as to how the attack may be carried out successfully.
In the short term, that is good for us. However, we cannot assume that this intent will continue to be effected in such an irrational manner.
Another aspect of this intent is that it results in a desire to attack without any regards for personal safety. Indeed, part of the intent is that the perpetrator even die in the attack.
This makes no sense except when viewed in the light of Islamic teaching. From the days of Mohammad, those who died while fighting in jihad are believed to be given exalted places in heaven. If sex sells, it is certainly selling in Islamic eternity as well: 72 virgins and all that jazz.
As such, it is also important to understand that while this deadly intent is resulting in irrational decisions about how attacks are carried out, the intent to carry out attacks is not irrational at all. It is based on an understanding of Islamic teaching, history and Mohammad’s example and is entirely consistent with all three.
There is no way to counter this intent except by destroying faith in Mohammad and Islam. That’s because this intent is driven precisely by a faith in Mohammad and Islam. And it is this fact that our police, security and intelligence agencies completely fail to understand, as well as the politicians who direct them.
It also means that a key indicator of intent is Islamic fervour. When it grows quickly, warning bells should ring. And where it is present in any group, there will be a tendency to violence.
Another aspect of intent relates to the strategy for violence. These attacks do not occur simply as an end in themselves. They are a means to something greater: the imposition of Islamic rule in Australia.
And it is also on this point that we have a complete misunderstanding of the nature of the threat’s intent and its scale.
The entire Islamic community believes that it is Allah’s will that Australia should become Islamic and that they have a duty to participate in this process. This belief exists regardless of whether one is labelled moderate or extreme and it is a common unifying belief across all the varied (and often conflicting) Islamic sects. Further, every school of Islamic thought also accepts that in certain circumstances there is a righteous place for violence in order to achieve Islamic rule.
Thus it is wrong to view the Islamic community as split between those who support violence and those who do not. Rather, this community should be viewed as split into camps differing over whether the conditions justifying violence have been met.
When one understands this, one also gains a true understanding of the threat we face. It is not simply a threat from the violent. There is a political wing to this threat as well that uses non-violent means to advance the cause of Islamic rule. Of great concern, there is also a huge potential for violent intent to grow in scale as more of the Islamic community accept that conditions justifying violence have been met.
For the uneducated, Islamic violence is justified if the Islamic community is seen to be subjugated or Mohammad’s teachings are rejected. Violence and subjugation are also justified against non-Islamic minorities living under Islamic rule.
Importantly, as an Islamic community grows so does the expectation that its demands will be met. As such, any rejection of those demands will be deemed more serious. Additionally, every time the demands are placated it will only fuel further calls for Islamic rule and Sharia law.
The unfortunate reality is that while ever there is an Islamic population in Australia there will be conflict. When the Islamic population is very low (as it was until recently), this conflict will primarily be political, in line with Mohammad’s example while he was in the minority during his early years in Mecca. However, as the population grows so too will violence and in an exponential rather than linear fashion. This will also be in line with Mohammad’s example as he grew in power in his later years in Medina.
A true assessment of the Islamic insurgency we face would therefore conclude that its current capabilities are low but likely to increase and that there is scope for its deadly intent to grow significantly in scale.
And that means one thing: if we are having trouble keeping people alive on our streets now, we don’t want to let this insurgency fester any longer. Now is the best time to face it and defeat it. The best way to start would be to restrict all further Islamic immigration.
For those who claim that such measures are only likely to inflame the situation, I leave you with a crude but brutally truthful analogy.
Australia’s relationship with the Islamic community is like a woman caught up with a deadbeat boyfriend. She knows he is violent and in order to protect herself gives in to his every demand.
We all know that such a relationship cannot last and that concessions given today are unlikely to stop atrocities tomorrow.
Given that is the case, why on earth would Australia want to get into bed with Islam when it could end the relationship today and avoid a future of pain and misery…
Bernard GaynorPO Box 766Park Ridge, Qld 4125Australia
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Response:
Thank you (Bernard Gaynor x Army intelligence officer Australian Defence Force) for your evaluation of the situation yes the security-political-social elite are suffering from a severe dangerous delusional state combined clearly with a policy driven mental illness pathological altruism.  Where we are to accept the “drink mint tea or eat Turkish pita” along with terror-genocide with equal equanimity based upon a western socialistic construct based upon a false dangerous assumption inherent in our Western security-political-social policy, as we are all the same physically-nature we can surely all get on – where the reality is culture-nurture determines such a view a very dangerous fallacy.
   
Some cultures such as the Chinese elite even the Islamic/Muslim culture itself in its core text and exemplar behaviors and final political/social manifestations know rightly this is a load of BS as the bloody bodies in their Chinese streets let alone the rest of humanity attest. Still the security services culpably continue despite the evidence to go along with ‘orders’.

"We have to stop with this debate of neutrality and secularity in Belgium and recognise and accept our multicultural society in all its manifestations. Not just when we want to drink mint tea or eat Turkish pita." sociologist Corinne Torrekens, a specialist in Muslim communities at the Free University of Brussels."
Terror sparks integration debate in France, Belgium, DW, Elizabeth Bryant, Molenbeek/Sevran, 05.04.2016

True in the main. Though it has been found in certain research to stage an effective insurgency a cultural population in revolt tends to be about 10% of the societal population globalisation, -communication, means altruistic enforcers able to come to the fore in other cultural dominated spaces operate across boundaries to elicit as you intimate increasingly violent outcomes for Other cultures.

"Support for ISIS in Mindanao has meant more than a repackaging of old kidnapping-for-ransom groups. It has facilitated cooperation across clan and ethnic lines, widened the extremist recruitment pool to include computer-savvy university students and opened new international communication and possibly funding channels. It means that more deadly violence in the Philippines involving alliances of pro-ISIS groups is a matter of when, not if. It may also increase the possibility of cross-border extremist operations."
PRO-ISIS GROUPS IN MINDANAO AND THEIR LINKS TO INDONESIA AND MALAYSIA, 25 October 2016, IPAC Report No. 33

There is no and a can be no 'split' of cultural thought only variations along a behavioural-cognitive behavioural variance otherwise the 'good' many would not be able to create and sustain the 'angels' they send into humanities streets.

If the good did not have evil as a basis for ethics-values-beliefs-motivation methodology in their families, communities, institutions there would be no terror-genocide the 'good' many are therefore culpable and always have been. As you intimate they the 'good' are very aware of the justification and authorisation of terror-genocide in their cultural codex they have to be otherwise it would never be so manifest in their own space.

The security services are quite efficient, and successful as they measure it for they are working under a Western-socialist-developed multiculturalism paradigm of acceptance of cultural cuisine along with a cultures terror-genocide under the framework any violence is caused by Others actions –marginalisation,-poverty-exclusion or lack of understanding of the ‘true’ Islam (so many?) from opportunity not by the cultures inherent construct of Other & own explicit exclusionary constructs see verse 5:51 of the Quran and are under World Health Organisation  dictates (as you are aware public servants even security forces need some justification-authorisation even for signing dangerous stupidity passing for successful policy) simply perpetrated by ‘mentally ill’ deviants where any deviance from an elites paradigm –violence be it terror-or generic  are now a ‘health’ issue not an escalating war as it is and always has been between  Muslims and Other historically and currently against Other.

What you have failed to explain is that such dangerous delusion on the part of Western Modernity policy makers security-political-social is inevitably violence will arise to counter violence Other are not going to allow another force within a space to visit violence increasingly against them whilst the state refuses as you rightly determine to remove the actual cause the Islamic construct of Other contained in Muslim codex and the exemplar behaviour of Mohammad. 

There will be violence, reactionary forces as we see in for instance Lebanon, Syria, …., Norway, … defensive enclaves will develop as they have elsewhere in time and space and the shattered buildings broken bodies and lives will in time as the Muslim population takes increasing political-social space be reflected in Australian streets – why would anyone believe it happens everywhere else in time and space where the Islamic/Muslim construct is allowed to develop and cannot happen here?

These security services so diligently, efficiently following orders and their political-social masters will be the focus of counter violence. You unleash a culture of terror-genocide against your own citizens, excuse your complicity which is plain for all to see what do you expect to happen – what has always happened?

I am opposed to such a future for my children’s, children … where violence becomes the final arbitrator as it has always in the past to resolve intercultural war. There is another way but it requires as you intimate the elite accepts the reality the Muslim cultural codex-and their infant-child-adolescent-adult development process =terror-genocide-as it always has and will.

If the security-political-social elite do not change course obviously as they continue to fail their citizens and put them and their culture in mortal danger a credible security-political-social elite needs to and will, if history is any measure, develop to replace them. I do hope very much this does not occur for my view is the method will be necessarily in the end the same as in the past.








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